Caterpillar to Capture Data-Center Generator Demand; 31-Year Dividend Hikes Highlighted

CATCAT

Bernstein analyst Chad Dillard said Caterpillar stands to gain if data centers shift to on-site power generation, boosting demand for its industrial generators. Caterpillar’s dividend has risen for 31 years with a 7% increase last June and 46.6% growth since 2021, alongside a 79% share-price gain over the past year.

1. Dividend Growth Record

Caterpillar has delivered 31 consecutive years of annual dividend increases, most recently announcing a 7% hike in June 2025. Over the past quarter-century, its payouts have more than tripled, and since 2021 the dividend has risen by 46.6%, more than double the cumulative inflation rate for the same period. This streak underscores management’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders, even as the machinery and mining equipment markets have faced cyclical downturns.

2. Resilience During Economic Downturns

The company maintained its dividend growth through the Financial Crisis of 2008–2009 and the 2020–2021 pandemic lockdowns, delivering increases of 16.7% and 7.8% respectively in those years. Caterpillar’s ability to sustain and grow its payout during these periods of severely reduced construction activity demonstrates robust cash flow generation, supported by a balance sheet with over $12 billion of liquidity and a long-term leverage ratio below 2.0x EBITDA.

3. Potential Benefits from On-Site Power Generation Trend

Analyst Chad Dillard of Bernstein highlights Caterpillar as a potential beneficiary if large data centers shift toward on-site power generation. With over 500 megawatts of standby and prime-power installations in hyperscale facilities globally, Caterpillar’s generator and propulsion segments stand to gain from multi-year service contracts and equipment orders. The company’s power systems backlog reached $8.7 billion in Q3 2025, up 15% year over year, signaling strong demand visibility in this emerging market.

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