CBA flags Strait of Hormuz closure as top near-term risk to Australian economy
EWA•CBA sees geopolitical shocks and slowing domestic growth as key risks
Commonwealth Bank management warned uncertainty and volatility are now structural, driven by geopolitics, AI, the net zero transition, and demographics.
The bank flagged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz as the biggest near-term risk. It said a closure lasting beyond 8-10 weeks could lift oil to USD 150 a barrel.
Australia’s growth is seen slowing from about 2.5% to 1.5% by end-2026 on weaker household spending and falling house prices.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold rates for the rest of 2026, with 1-2 cuts possible in mid-2027 if growth keeps slowing.
Income growth is expected to ease to 7%-8% from above 10%, while unemployment is forecast to drift higher, weighing on consumer spending.
