CBOT wheat falls to 2-month low as USDA raises US supply forecast
WEAT•CBOT wheat futures fell to a two-month low after the USDA raised its 2026/27 US wheat ending stocks forecast to 740 million bushels, above analysts’ average estimate of 721 million. December soft red winter wheat closed 12-1/4 cents lower at $6.71 per bushel.
1. US supply forecast rises
The USDA raised its 2026/27 US wheat ending stocks forecast to 740 million bushels from 717 million last month, above the average analyst estimate of 721 million. It trimmed its acreage forecast but raised its average yield outlook, increasing projected production by 3 million bushels, and cut its export forecast by 25 million bushels.
2. Global outlook and futures
Wheat futures remained supported by global supply concerns as Black Sea shipments remained restricted by the Russia-Ukraine war. The USDA lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 3 million metric tons for 2026/27, partly offset by small increases to Argentine and Canadian exports. CBOT December soft red winter wheat closed 12-1/4 cents lower at $6.71 per bushel; Kansas City December hard red winter wheat last traded 17 cents lower at $7.19-1/4, and Minneapolis December spring wheat ended 11-1/4 cents lower at $6.95-1/4.
