Google TPU Assembly Shift Triggers 6.08% Share Drop and Fraud Probe at Celestica

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A Digitimes report that Google could shift TPU assembly work from Celestica sent shares down $18.83, or 6.08%, to $290.92, and prompted a Pomerantz LLP securities fraud investigation. Analysts forecast Q4 EPS of $1.73 on $3.49 billion revenue while a Buy rating cites strong AI infrastructure and hyperscale demand.

1. Q4 Earnings Beat and Revenue Surge

Celestica reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.89, outperforming the consensus estimate of $1.74 and representing a 70% increase from $1.11 a year earlier. Revenue rose 44% year-over-year, driven by strong demand in its Cloud and Communications Solutions (CCS) division. CCS order intake more than doubled, underpinned by hyperscale data center build-outs and accelerated adoption of AI infrastructure components. Gross margin expanded by 180 basis points to 9.4%, reflecting improved factory utilization and favorable product mix shifts toward higher-margin server assemblies.

2. Upgraded 2026 Outlook on Strengthening Demand

Management raised its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting revenue growth of 12%–15%, adjusted operating margin of 6.5%–7.0%, and diluted EPS of $5.10–$5.50. The revised outlook reflects a sustained increase in hyperscale cloud spending, multi-year commitments from leading AI customers, and factory capacity expansions in Malaysia and the Czech Republic. Capital expenditures are planned at approximately $250 million to support new production lines for next-generation tensor processing units and optical modules.

3. Valuation Metrics and Emerging Risks

Celestica trades at a price-to-earnings ratio near 55 and a price-to-sales ratio of 3.4, signaling elevated investor expectations. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 and a current ratio of 1.47, indicating manageable leverage and adequate liquidity to fund growth investments. However, the company faces potential headwinds from a securities fraud investigation initiated by Pomerantz LLP and industry reports that a major cloud provider may reassign certain AI server assembly contracts to competitors. Investors should monitor order conversion rates and any incremental disclosure on contract shifts to assess the impact on future revenue streams.

Sources

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