CF Industries shares gained roughly 3% in Monday trading as investors continued to bid up U.S.-based nitrogen producers benefiting from a tighter global supply backdrop. The core driver is fertilizer-price strength—especially urea—after shipping disruptions in and around the Strait of Hormuz curtailed exports of nitrogen fertilizers and key inputs from the Persian Gulf, leaving prices elevated even after a recent ceasefire framework.

Urea pricing has stayed high amid ongoing friction in Persian Gulf logistics, a key corridor for globally traded fertilizers. Benchmark indicators show urea around the ~$700/ton level in early April, up sharply over the past month, reflecting constrained supply and higher energy costs that ripple through nitrogen production economics. For CF, which is structurally advantaged by North American natural gas feedstock, elevated global clearing prices can widen margins even if U.S. gas costs rise less dramatically than overseas alternatives.

CF recently posted strong full-year 2025 results and outlined a 2026 outlook that still includes operational headwinds from its Yazoo City incident, with production at that site not expected to resume until at least the fourth quarter of 2026. Even with that constraint, the market is focusing on CF’s scale and cost position in ammonia and downstream nitrogen products, plus its capital allocation capacity during periods of strong commodity pricing.

Near-term direction hinges on whether Gulf shipping normalizes enough to bring incremental urea and ammonia supply back to market and cool prices. Traders will also watch additional fertilizer-price prints, U.S. planting-season demand signals, and any policy headlines that could affect fertilizer trade flows, alongside CF’s updates on 2026 production, capex timing, and insurance proceeds tied to the Yazoo City outage.