Chainfir Capital says AI drug deal headlines mask reliance on uncertain milestone payments
XLV•Chainfir Capital said AI drug-discovery deals often depend on development and commercialization milestones. Insilico’s Servier collaboration is worth up to $888 million, including $32 million in upfront and near-term R&D payments.
1. Milestones and funding
Chainfir Capital’s analysis prioritizes cash received over headline deal values, noting that most payments are contingent on development and commercialization milestones. Insilico reported first-half 2026 revenue of approximately $106 million, up 287%, and adjusted net profit of more than $51 million, its first profitable half-year since listing. China’s AI drug-discovery sector raised RMB 15.77 billion across 57 financings in January-September 2026, exceeding the combined total for 2023-2025; the four largest transactions accounted for roughly 60% of funding.
