Beijing rejected approval for any Nvidia H200 chip purchases despite U.S. clearance for up to 75,000 units per Chinese firm, wiping out an estimated $30 billion in potential China revenue. CEO Jensen Huang withdrew all China revenue guidance and Nvidia shares fell 4.4%, highlighting the impact of export-curb policies.
The U.S. Treasury imposed a 25% fee on Nvidia’s H200 chip exports to China via a routing requirement through U.S. territory. This structure allows fee collection but has raised Chinese concerns over potential tampering and security vulnerabilities.
Despite U.S. Commerce Department clearance for up to 75,000 H200 units per firm—including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com—Beijing has not approved a single purchase. Domestic firms have been quietly steered to Huawei’s Ascend chips instead.
KeyBanc models China demand at 1.5 million H200 units annually, equating to roughly $30 billion in revenue, yet Nvidia assumed zero data center sales in its latest guidance. The stock fell 4.4% following the news, surrendering its all-time high.
CEO Jensen Huang confirmed Nvidia has largely conceded the Chinese data center market and removed China revenue from forecasts. Wall Street price targets range from $275 to $380, and Nvidia is pivoting focus to hyperscaler capex and sovereign AI deals elsewhere.
