China Bypasses U.S. Ban to Train AI on Nvidia H100; Q4 Revenue Estimates $65.6B
China’s DeepSeek unit reportedly trained its AI model on Nvidia’s top-tier H100 GPU despite U.S. export restrictions, potentially exposing Nvidia to sanction compliance risks. Analysts forecast Q4 revenue of $65.64 billion and $1.50 EPS, while some warn Nvidia’s share price may already price in a 2026 AI demand peak.
1. DeepSeek Bypasses Export Controls with H100 GPU
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek reportedly obtained Nvidia’s flagship H100 GPU to train its AI model despite U.S. export restrictions, raising questions over sanction compliance and potential regulatory action.
2. Q4 Estimates Signal Robust Growth
Analysts expect Nvidia’s fourth-quarter revenue to reach about $65.64 billion and EPS of $1.50, reflecting implied year-over-year growth rates of roughly 67% and 68% driven by surging Data Center demand.
3. Analysts Warn Share Price May Reflect Peak Demand
Despite strong estimates, some analysts caution that Nvidia’s share price appears to price in a 2026 peak in AI demand, suggesting limited upside unless guidance or market dynamics exceed current forecasts.