China emerges as obesity drug lab for Big Pharma
NVO•Pharmaceutical companies are turning to China for obesity-drug candidates, as patent expirations loom and the weight-loss market is expected to grow from about $72 billion to $180 billion in a decade. Deals for Chinese weight-loss drugs have topped $47 billion since 2023, and Novo Nordisk agreed to pay up to $2.6 billion for rights to an experimental pill from Jiangsu Hengrui.
1. China’s drug pipeline
China registered more clinical trials than the United States in 2024, and one Pfizer executive estimates drug development there is three times as fast as in Europe. Xinhua reported nearly 5,000 innovative drugs in China’s pipeline by the end of last year, while patents covering more than $500 billion in projected annual drug sales are due to expire by 2033.
2. Weight-loss deals grow
The market for weight-loss drugs is expected to grow from around $72 billion to $180 billion in a decade, according to Nomura. Deals for weight-loss solutions have surpassed $47 billion since emerging in 2023, and nearly 250 Chinese GLP-1 candidates are under development, per PharmCube. In September, Novo Nordisk agreed to pay up to $2.6 billion to license an experimental pill from Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma.
3. Risks and opportunity
Chinese drugmakers are seeking international partners to help develop and commercialise treatments outside China, where government efforts to keep medicine affordable and competition from local rivals constrain pricing. Novo estimates China’s GLP-1 market is worth less than $1 billion, compared with more than $20 billion for Europe and Canada; Nomura research projects China’s market could reach around $20 billion by 2035.
