China emerges as obesity drug lab for Big Pharma
NVO•Chinese biotech companies are developing nearly 250 GLP-1 candidates, as global drugmakers seek new obesity treatments and China-based outlicensing deals for weight-loss drugs have surpassed $47 billion since 2023. Novo Nordisk agreed to pay up to $2.6 billion for rights to develop and commercialise an experimental pill from Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma.
1. China’s biotech boom
China registered more clinical trials than the United States in 2024, and a Pfizer executive estimates drug development there is three times as fast as in Europe. Nearly 5,000 innovative drugs were in development by the end of last year, as global drugmakers seek new ideas ahead of patent expirations projected to affect more than $500 billion in annual drug sales by 2033.
2. Deals target obesity drugs
Outlicensing deals let foreign drugmakers develop and commercialise Chinese medicines outside China. Their total value topped $159 billion in 2026, while deals for weight-loss treatments have exceeded $47 billion since 2023. Nearly 250 Chinese GLP-1 candidates are under development. In September, Novo Nordisk agreed to pay up to $2.6 billion for rights to an experimental pill from Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma.
3. Market opportunity and risks
The global weight-loss drug market is expected to grow from about $72 billion to $180 billion in a decade, while Novo Nordisk estimates China’s GLP-1 market is worth less than $1 billion. Chinese drugmakers seek overseas partners for expertise in navigating foreign markets, while buyers’ payments often include milestones tied to clinical or commercial progress. It remains uncertain whether early signs of improved treatments will hold up after commercialisation.
