China emerges as obesity drug lab for Big Pharma
XLV•China’s biotech boom is drawing pharmaceutical companies seeking obesity-drug candidates, with outlicensing deals for weight-loss treatments surpassing $47 billion since 2023. Nearly 250 Chinese GLP-1 candidates are in development, and Novo Nordisk agreed to pay up to $2.6 billion for rights to an experimental pill from Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma.
1. China’s biotech boom
China registered more clinical trials than the United States in 2024, and one Pfizer executive estimates drug development there is three times as fast as in Europe. Chinese researchers had nearly 5,000 innovative drugs in the pipeline by the end of last year, as pharmaceutical companies look to replace drugs facing patent expirations.
2. Obesity drug deals
The market for weight-loss treatments is expected to grow from around $72 billion today to $180 billion in a decade, according to Nomura. Deals for weight-loss solutions have topped $47 billion since 2023, and nearly 250 Chinese GLP-1 candidates are under development. In September, Novo Nordisk agreed to pay up to $2.6 billion for rights to develop and commercialise an experimental pill from Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma outside China.
3. Risks and opportunity
Chinese drugmakers seek international partners’ expertise to develop products for overseas markets, while foreign companies use outlicensing deals to access Chinese candidates without acquiring the companies. Early results may address side effects: Sciwind Biosciences said 2% of participants in a 48-week trial of its Ecnoglutide GLP-1 quit because of unwanted side effects. Commercial success remains uncertain, and China’s GLP-1 market is currently worth less than $1 billion, according to Novo Nordisk.
