Shares of the Chinese EV maker rebounded strongly in the past twelve months, climbing 25.6% year-over-year and rising more than 60% over the last six months. The recent 13.0% one-week jump follows Beijing’s confirmation of extended consumer subsidies for EV trade-ins through 2026, which industry analysts estimate could preserve some 200 billion CNY in annual sales for domestic manufacturers. A preliminary fourth-quarter outlook projecting double-digit revenue growth also helped lift sentiment after the stock had slumped to a multi-year low of $3.02 last April.

Since its 2018 listing, the company has grown annual revenues from 4,951 million CNY to 55,618 million CNY in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate of roughly 60%. Operating losses widened in 2023 to 22,655 million CNY, reflecting heavy R&D and factory scale-up expenses. However, the operating loss margin improved slightly from 32% in 2022 to 28% in 2023 as higher-volume models began to dilute fixed costs. The firm now spends about 25% of revenues on R&D as it pushes into both premium and mass-market segments.

Vehicle deliveries in 2024 reached 221,970 units, up 38.7% from the previous year, and included a December record of 31,138 vehicles (up 72.9% year-over-year). Cumulative deliveries since inception now stand at 671,564 units. Management projects 2025 deliveries will double the 165,000 units sold in 2023, which would raise market share from about 2% to approximately 4% of China’s new energy vehicle market. The rollout of over 4,000 battery swap stations by end-2025—1,000 of which are planned outside China—remains a key strategic pillar to support these volumes.

Of 27 equity analysts covering the stock, roughly half rate it a buy, with a consensus one-year price target implying more than 20% upside. Forecast models from independent research project annual revenues growing from about 97,000 million CNY in 2025 to nearly 190,000 million CNY by 2030, underpinned by a phased expansion into Europe and higher-range performance models. Price-to-sales multiples are expected to climb from 1x in 2025 to 2x by 2030, implying a potential share-price gain of over 300% from current levels if the company can sustain its delivery and technology roadmap.