After an intense sell-off during the first four months of 2025, Nvidia’s shares are now trading at their cheapest levels since December 2024. The decline accelerated in March and April, when the stock fell roughly 35% from its September 2024 peak, on average daily volume spikes of 50% above the prior six‐month average. Historical data shows that following similar year-long valuation troughs (in 2018 and 2020), Nvidia shares rebounded by an average of 40% over the subsequent six-month period.

On January 17, 2026, Chinese customs authorities halted shipments of Nvidia’s new H200 AI accelerator cards bound for mainland data centers. Within 24 hours, at least three component suppliers—each accounting for more than 15% of Nvidia’s H200 bill of materials—announced production pauses. This roadblock is rippling through the supplier ecosystem, with factories in Taiwan and South Korea reporting downshifts of up to 20% in planned output for February.

Investor sentiment, rather than business fundamentals, has driven much of the recent pullback. Surveys of institutional clients by three major brokerage desks show that nearly 60% of recent volume was attributed to momentum-driven liquidation, not changes in revenue or margin forecasts. Nvidia’s Q4 guidance, issued in late November, remains intact, projecting year-over-year data center revenue growth in excess of 80%, yet buyers have remained on the sidelines amid broader market volatility.