According to recent reports, China may approve imports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips for commercial and technology customers as early as this quarter. In calendar 2024, Nvidia generated $17.1 billion in Chinese revenue despite existing U.S. export restrictions and estimates it forfeited roughly $8 billion due to those limits. The company already holds orders for over 2 million H200 units at a list price of $27,000 each, implying gross revenue of $54 billion. After accounting for a 25 percent U.S. export levy, Nvidia’s net revenue from these orders could exceed $40 billion, a material uplift to its current outlook, which excludes China.

Analysts forecast Nvidia will report 66.7 percent year-over-year revenue growth and 71 percent earnings growth in the upcoming quarter, driven by accelerating demand for AI data center processors and initial sales of the H200 in China. Consensus estimates peg Nvidia’s full-year revenue at $320 billion for the next fiscal period. With a current net profit margin of 56 percent, a $40 billion revenue boost could translate into roughly $8.29 in earnings per share. Applying Nvidia’s prevailing price-to-earnings multiple of 46 suggests a potential share price near $380, more than double its present level, underscoring significant upside for investors.