Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote, was more downbeat, saying that the rise of a Chinese competitor could be a "nightmare scenario" for ASML if it breaks its hold on the DUV market.
ASML said this month it expects 20% of revenue, or around €9 billion worth, will come from China this year.
That's despite rounds of U.S.-led export controls that prevent the firm from selling its most advanced EUV product line in China, as well as its best immersion DUV tools.
The U.S. Congress is debating legislation that could block ASML's remaining exports of immersion DUV tools -- the segment Aishengna is targeting.
Sanne van der Lugt, a researcher affiliated with the Netherlands' Leiden Asia Center, said the development underscored how tougher rules on China could backfire.
"What this shows is that U.S. export controls successfully created a business case for Chinese lithography," she said. "It was not what they were intended to do, but that is the outcome."
Launching an immersion DUV tool, however, is not the same as becoming competitive with ASML. The Dutch company built a dominant position in DUV by steady improvement in its machines' yield and throughput over two decades, pushing aside competitors including Japan's Nikon and Canon.
Aishengna's new DUV machine will need improvement, and any chipmaker that chooses a less-capable system would normally be accepting lower productivity and a higher cost per chip.
Export controls of course change that calculation: Chinese chipmakers may be willing to accept a weaker domestic machine if the alternative is dependence on foreign tools whose sale or servicing could later be blocked by the United States.
Chinese firms "already do not really trust that they can rely on Dutch technology in the long run," Van der Lugt said.
"For Chinese customers it may be this or nothing."
ASML•
