China's Q3 GDP growth set to pick up as exports power ahead
FXI•China's third-quarter GDP is forecast to grow 4.4% year on year, up from 4.3% in the second quarter, with exports and policy support helping activity. Full-year growth is forecast at 4.5%, the lower end of the government's target range.
1. Growth forecast to rise
China's economy is expected to have grown 4.4% year on year in July-September, compared with 4.3% in the second quarter, according to a poll. Quarterly growth is forecast at 1.1%, up from 0.9%. September data is expected to show industrial output growth accelerating to 5.5% and retail sales growth edging up to 0.6%.
2. Exports and policy support
Exports and a recovery in manufacturing activity supported momentum toward the end of the quarter, while weak consumption and private investment remained headwinds. Beijing introduced targeted interest-rate cuts and mortgage subsidies in late September and allocated 550 billion yuan in unused government debt quotas to support local finances and infrastructure. Full-year growth is forecast at 4.5%, while analysts expect lending rates and banks' reserve requirement ratio to remain unchanged through the first quarter of 2027.
