Additionally, the US processes hardly any of the so-called heavy rare earths used in military applications, although its output of those hyper-specialized minerals should rise by 2031 even as it falls short of demand, according to the Benchmark data.
Rare earths processing has proved complex for the US to master given the chemical and mechanical difficulties of separating the 17 rare earths from each other.
"Western countries are in a stronger position to reduce their reliance on China, but replacing Chinese supply across the full value chain is much more difficult," said Todd Downing, a minerals analyst with consultancy Project Blue.
To be sure, US rare earths companies are growing. MP Materials, for instance, earlier this month began delivering magnets made from its own refined rare earths to General Motors GM.N as part of a deal inked in 2021.
USA Rare Earth has been an acquisition spree this year after US government investment, buying a Brazilian mine and a French processing plant. Energy Fuels UUUU.A earlier this year agreed to buy a company that had built a major magnet facility in South Carolina.
"Rare earths domestic onshoring is moving forward," said Tim Moore, a rare earths analyst with financial services firm Clear Street. "It's early innings, but it's happening."
Startups, including Nth Cycle, Ucore Rare Metals UCU.V and others, have been experimenting with new ways to refine rare earths.
"The US continues to make a lot of rapid progress in developing our capacity to produce materials across the supply chain," said Albert Gore, head of ZETA, an electric vehicle trade group. The EV industry is a large user of rare earth magnets.
Even still, some Chinese suppliers have begun holding back shipments to the US due to fears of offending Beijing, Reuters reported earlier this month. That could pose a wider threat to US manufacturers if Xi opts to formally block exports.
Ford Motor F.N last year, for example, temporarily shuttered US factories after supplies of Chinese rare earths dried up.
"We are all working very hard to stand up the processing capacity as quickly as we can," said Megan O'Connor, CEO of Nth Cycle, which developed technology it says can process rare earths and earlier this week signed a $1 billion supply agreement with Glencore.
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