Chipotle Shares Slide 4.6% as Q1 EPS Forecast Falls 17%
Chipotle shares fell 4.56% on March 6, lagging the S&P 500’s 1.33% drop and extending a one-month decline of 3.62%. Consensus forecasts first-quarter EPS of $0.24 (down 17.24% year-over-year) on $3.07 billion revenue (+6.73%), while the stock trades at a 32.6x forward P/E with a Zacks Rank #5.
1. Stock Underperforms Market
Chipotle shares closed down 4.56% on March 6, compared with a 1.33% drop in the S&P 500, marking a 3.62% decline over the past month versus a 0.58% gain for the index. This underperformance highlights growing investor concern over near-term growth prospects.
2. First-Quarter Earnings and Revenue Outlook
Analysts expect Chipotle to report first-quarter EPS of $0.24, a 17.24% decrease from the prior year, on revenue of $3.07 billion, up 6.73% year-over-year. The slowdown in earnings growth contrasts with continued top-line expansion driven by menu price increases and digital sales momentum.
3. Valuation Metrics and Analyst Ranking
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 32.61, a significant premium to the Retail-Restaurants average of 19.07, and carries a PEG ratio of 2.28 versus the industry’s 1.92. A Zacks Rank of #5 (Strong Sell) reflects recent downward revisions to EPS estimates.
4. Industry Position
Chipotle operates within the Retail-Restaurants industry, which holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 191, placing it in the bottom 23% of over 250 industries. This ranking underscores broader sector challenges, including rising labor costs and competitive pricing pressure.