Circle Internet Group Q4 Revenue Up 77% and Wolfe Cuts Target to $40
Circle Internet Group reported Q4 total revenue and reserve income of $770 million, up 77% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 412% to $167 million and a 54% margin. Wolfe Research cut its price target on projected 2027 EBITDA to $40 from $65, citing lower profitability estimates.
1. Q4 Financial Results
Circle reported Q4 total revenue and reserve income of $770 million, a 77% increase year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA surged 412% to $167 million, delivering a 54% margin, while distribution and transaction costs rose 52% to $461 million and the reserve return rate slipped to 3.81%.
2. USDC Circulation and CCTP Volume
Year-end USDC in circulation reached $75.3 billion, up 72% year-over-year, and on-platform USDC climbed 5.6x to $12.5 billion, representing 17% of total issuance. Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol volume jumped 3.7x to over $41 billion and accounted for more than 50% of bridged activity, reaching 62% in January.
3. Platform Expansion
Circle’s Arc testnet now hosts over 100 participants with 166 million transactions to date, averaging 2.3 million daily transactions and 0.5 second finality, on track for a 2026 mainnet launch. The Circle Payments Network enrolled 55 financial institutions with $5.7 billion in annualized flows, and new offerings StableFX, EURC and USYC gained notable traction.
4. Analyst Price Target Revision
Wolfe Research reduced its price target on Circle to $40 from $65 by applying a 19x multiple to a 2027 EBITDA forecast of $634 million, down from a prior $865 million estimate and a 21.5x multiple. The adjustment reflects expectations of slower out-year profitability growth.