Circle Q4 Revenue Seen at $748.6M with EPS of $0.15
Circle Internet Group’s Q4 2025 revenue consensus stands at $748.62M with expected EPS of $0.15, after Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.64 topped estimates. Reserve yields fell 96 bps to 4.15%, driving a 270-bp margin decline even as high-margin subscription and services revenue rose to $23.6M.
1. Q4 Estimates and Earnings Outlook
Circle is set to report Q4 2025 revenue of $748.62M and EPS of $0.15 on Feb. 25, following Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.64 which exceeded the 20¢ consensus. Consensus EPS has declined by 1¢ over 60 days while revenue estimates remained steady.
2. Margin Pressure from Reserve Yield Decline
Circle’s reserve return rate dropped approximately 96 basis points year over year to around 4.15%, constraining reserve income growth despite a 97% increase in average USDC circulation. This decline contributed to a 270-basis-point year-over-year drop in RLDC margin.
3. Distribution Costs and Competitive Headwinds
Rising partner payouts and platform incentives have increased distribution and transaction costs, exerting structural pressure on margins as USDC circulation grows. Competition from alternative stablecoin issuers and yield-bearing digital assets may further dampen demand for non-yielding USDC.
4. Growth in High-Margin Other Revenue
High-margin subscription and services revenue surged to $23.6M in Q3, prompting management to raise full-year 2025 guidance for other revenues to $90–$100M. Continued traction in infrastructure products is expected to support profitability in Q4.