Circular Financing Raises Risks as Google’s 14% Anthropic Stake Drives $1.25B Monthly Compute Deals
Google holds 14% of Anthropic and 6% of SpaceX, creating circular financing where Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion monthly for compute. Experts warn tiered lockups over 70–120 days will flood indexes with shares, benefitting venture investors despite combined losses of $4 billion annually.
1. Google’s Strategic AI and Space Investments
Google holds 14% of Anthropic and 6% of SpaceX, creating a web of cross-ownership where Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion per month for computing resources. This arrangement underscores Google’s hedged approach in the AI race between Anthropic and its own Gemini model.
2. Valuation Concerns and Ongoing Losses
Combined investments represent a $1.7 trillion estimated marketplace value, yet Anthropic and related ventures report annual losses of around $4 billion. Venture and private equity backers are positioning for upcoming exits on public markets, intensifying scrutiny on valuation sustainability.
3. Lockup Structures and Index Fund Effects
Under accelerated tiered lockup schedules at 70, 90 and 120 days, additional shares will enter the market, forcing index funds to absorb new supply. While this supports retail-anchored indexes, it also funnels gains to initial venture investors and raises dilution risks for existing shareholders.
