Silver Futures Rally Tops $80 then Plunges to $70 on CME Margin Hike

SILSIL

Silver futures have surged over 150% this year, briefly topping $80/oz before tumbling to $70 on raised CME margin requirements and rebounding to $78. Trading veteran Peter Brandt warns that rapid peaks often lead to full retracements, signaling potential volatility for the Silver Trust ETF.

1. Frank Giustra Flags ‘Bare-Knuckle Fight’ that Could Roil SIL Investors

Frank Giustra, co-founder of the World Silver Trust, warned this week that the global silver market is entering what he describes as a “bare-knuckle fight” between industrial demand and speculative capital flows. He pointed to surging use of silver in photovoltaic cells and electric vehicle components—up 12% year-on-year to 1.25 billion ounces in the first three quarters of 2025—as well as record retail inflows into the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), which attracted $520 million of new capital through November, bringing its total assets under management to $2.15 billion. Giustra cautioned that tight physical inventories in major vault centers—registered silver stocks at COMEX fell by 18% over the past six months—and elevated open interest in silver futures contracts, which hit 380,000 lots in December (a 40% increase year-to-date), could combine to amplify price swings. He advised SIL investors to prepare for higher volatility, noting that silver’s 150% rally in 2025 was driven as much by speculative positioning—margin requirements on CME Group were raised by 30% on December 22—to rein in leverage, as by fundamentals.

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