CME Group’s FedWatch Odds at 71% for Hike by March; Presses Hyperliquid Oversight
CME•Fed funds futures show a 51% chance of a rate hike by year-end and 71% by March after consumer prices rose 3.8% annually and PPI jumped 1.4% monthly. CME Group and NYSE are urging regulators to tighten oversight of Hyperliquid’s on-chain derivatives platform over market manipulation and sanctions risks.
1. Fed Funds Futures Signal Rising Hike Odds
Fed funds futures contracts are now pricing in a 51% probability of a Fed rate increase by year-end and 71% by March, driven by a 3.8% annual surge in consumer prices and a 1.4% monthly jump in the producer price index. CME Group’s FedWatch tool, based on 30-day federal funds futures, could see increased trading volumes and data licensing demand as market participants adjust to higher rate expectations under new leadership.
2. Push for Hyperliquid Oversight
CME Group and the New York Stock Exchange’s parent are actively urging U.S. regulators to tighten oversight of Hyperliquid, a blockchain-based derivatives platform offering 24/7 trading and leveraged perpetual contracts. Concerns focus on potential market manipulation, wash trading and sanctions exposure due to Hyperliquid’s permissionless structure and internal liquidity provider model, which threatens the neutrality and counterparty risk profile of traditional exchanges.
