CommBank forecasts November RBA rate hike to 4.85% as inflation risks rise
TLT•Commonwealth Bank economists expect the RBA to raise its cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85% in November 2026, with rate cuts forecast for August and November 2027 if inflation makes sufficient progress.
1. Rate outlook revised
Commonwealth Bank economists expect the RBA to raise its cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85% in November 2026, reflecting RBA warnings of higher inflation driven by energy costs and tighter domestic capacity. They expect the RBA to hold rates steady in December and February while assessing economic conditions.
2. Growth and cuts
Higher rates are expected to weaken growth, soften home prices and push unemployment above previous forecasts. Rate cuts are forecast for August and November 2027, conditional on sufficient progress on inflation.
