Democratic victories in key data-center states have fueled expectations of tighter AI oversight, while a potential extension of Texas' permit freeze could delay projects. States where Democrats could restrict data-center development account for roughly 45% of planned US capacity, with Texas accounting for about 25%.
Data-center developers with the most exposure to Texas include Cipher Digital, MARA Holdings, Solaris Energy Infrastructure and Galaxy Digital, Morgan Stanley said. J.P. Morgan expects Vistra, NRG Energy, Constellation Energy and Talen Energy could face pressure from project delays. Morgan Stanley also flagged gas engine manufacturer Innio, while saying GE Vernova's diversified customer base and regional exposure could limit the impact.
Oracle and CoreWeave could be affected by construction delays or moratoriums, Baird Equity Research said. Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet could prove resilient because of their diversified exposure and greater resources. Developers Applied Digital and TeraWulf, with less Texas exposure, could be more insulated, while investors may shift toward utilities including Ameren, Consolidated Edison and Duke Energy.
The states where Democrats could restrict data-center development account for roughly 45% of planned US capacity, including about 25% in Texas, according to Goldman Sachs. J.P. Morgan analysts said most of the states have not imposed outright bans, but new projects are expected to face higher approval hurdles, potentially favoring projects that are already approved.
