Connection Capital sees UK distribution network investment quadrupling to £80 billion under ED3
XLU•Connection Capital expects UK electricity distribution investment to rise to £80 billion under RIIO-ED3, from £20 billion under RIIO-ED2. ED3 runs from April 2028 to March 2033.
1. Investment outlook
Connection Capital expects UK electricity distribution investment to quadruple to £80 billion under RIIO-ED3, from £20 billion under RIIO-ED2. The five-year ED3 period runs from April 2028 to March 2033, with greater emphasis on infrastructure investment ahead of demand.
2. Supplier timing risks
Suppliers face order slowdowns at the start of regulatory cycles, requiring them to invest in capacity before firm orders arrive. Ofgem's procurement guidance leaves network funding unchanged, keeping timing risk with suppliers. Diversifying into private-sector customers can sustain revenue during procurement pauses and help suppliers retain skilled teams ahead of ED3 demand.
