ConocoPhillips Q4 Adjusted EPS Sinks 48% to $1.02; CFO at $19.9B

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ConocoPhillips posted Q4 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.02 per share ($1.3B) versus $1.98 ($2.4B) a year earlier, and full-year adjusted EPS of $6.16 ($7.7B) down from $7.79 ($9.2B). It generated $19.9B in cash flow, returned $9.0B to shareholders, set 2026 guidance of $12B capex and 2.33–2.36 MMBOED production.

1. Fourth-Quarter Earnings Decline

ConocoPhillips reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $1.4 billion, or $1.17 per share, down from $2.3 billion, or $1.90 per share, in the same period of 2024. Adjusted fourth-quarter earnings, excluding a $0.1 billion gain on asset sales and restructuring costs, fell to $1.3 billion, or $1.02 per share, compared with $2.4 billion, or $1.98 per share a year earlier. The decline reflected a 19% drop in realized price to $42.46 per barrel of oil equivalent despite a rise in production to 2,320 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 137 MBOED year-over-year.

2. Full-Year 2025 Performance

For the full year, ConocoPhillips delivered net income of $8.0 billion, or $6.35 per share, versus $9.2 billion, or $7.81 per share, in 2024. Excluding special items, adjusted earnings were $7.7 billion, or $6.16 per share, down from $9.2 billion, or $7.79 per share. Total average realized price declined 14% to $47.01 per BOE, while full-year production grew by 388 MBOED to 2,375 MBOED, driven by Lower 48 drilling efficiency gains of over 15% and the integration of Marathon Oil, which doubled synergy capture to a run-rate of more than $1 billion.

3. Strong Cash Generation and Capital Returns

In 2025, operating cash flow reached $19.9 billion, supplemented by $3.2 billion of disposition proceeds. The company invested $12.6 billion in capital expenditures and returned $9.0 billion to shareholders, representing 45% of cash from operations—$5.0 billion via share repurchases and $4.0 billion in dividends. Year-end liquidity comprised $7.4 billion in cash and short-term investments and $1.1 billion in long-term investments, while debt maturities of $0.7 billion were retired as scheduled.

4. 2026 Guidance and Strategic Priorities

ConocoPhillips forecasts 2026 capital spending of approximately $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion. Production guidance is set at 2.33 to 2.36 million BOE per day, with first-quarter output expected between 2.30 and 2.34 MMBOED. Depreciation, depletion and amortization is projected at $11.7 to $11.9 billion, while adjusted corporate segment net loss is expected near $0.9 billion. Management plans a $1 billion reduction in capital and costs, a 45% cash-return ratio, and anticipates generating $7 billion of incremental free cash flow by 2029.

Sources

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