Consistent 11% Bitcoin Pullbacks Post-FOMC May Pressure Robinhood Crypto Revenue
HOOD•Bitcoin has averaged an 11% drop in the week following eight of the last nine FOMC meetings, including a 29% plunge after October 2025, while current price is ~$65,829 with a 97.4% implied probability of unchanged rates. This persistent volatility could weigh on Robinhood’s crypto trading volumes and transaction-based revenue.
1. Bitcoin Volatility Patterns
Since 2025, bitcoin has posted negative returns after seven of eight FOMC meetings, with 48-hour drawdowns ranging from 6% to 29%. This systematic downside continued into 2026, as each of the first three rate-hold decisions triggered further declines, averaging an 11% drop over the subsequent week.
2. Current FOMC Outlook
Bitcoin is trading near $65,829 ahead of today’s meeting, with market participants pricing in a 97.4% probability that the Fed will maintain rates at 3.50–3.75%. All rate-hold announcements so far this year have been followed by immediate downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.
3. Implications for Robinhood
Robinhood’s revenue model relies heavily on transaction volume, and consistent post-FOMC bitcoin selloffs could dampen trading activity on its platform. Reduced crypto trades during periods of heightened volatility may translate into lower commission and payment-for-order-flow income for the company.
