Copper market outlook turns more cautious amid demand uncertainty, CRU says
XLB•Copper market sentiment turned more cautious at LME Week 2026 as macroeconomic risks and US tariff uncertainty limited price expectations. The 2027 concentrate benchmark is expected at -$80 to -$120, while the global surplus is forecast below 200,000 tons.
1. Cautious market outlook
Copper market sentiment turned more cautious at LME Week 2026, with macroeconomic risks and uncertainty over US tariffs limiting price expectations. The 2027 copper concentrate benchmark is expected at -$80 to -$120, and confidence is growing in a triple-digit negative outcome.
2. Supply and demand
Continued US inventory building risks regional supply strains, while the global copper surplus is forecast below 200,000 tons. China's copper demand was unchanged year over year: export-related growth of almost 10% offset a nearly 5% decline in domestic-related use.
3. European premium rises
Aurubis set its European cathode premium at $347 per ton, up 10%, highlighting competitive pressure on European manufacturers.
