Copper rises as US inventories and bullish outlook build
XLB•Copper rose 0.36% to $14,391 a ton on the London Metal Exchange as US inventories swelled and Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 forecast to $14,700 a ton. Comex inventories reached 791,679 short tons, while BHP reported a 19% drop in quarterly copper output to 400,700 tons and maintained its annual guidance.
1. Prices and forecasts
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.36% to $14,391 a metric ton by 0705 GMT. The most-traded November copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.27% at 109,550 yuan a ton. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 a ton and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening markets outside the United States.
2. Inventory and demand
Comex copper inventories reached 791,679 short tons, or about 718,200 tons, amid stockpiling ahead of potential US import tariffs. The London Metal Exchange approved Owensboro, Kentucky, as another US delivery point, and its copper inventories rose 2.99% to 232,175 tons on October 16. Copper received 50% of votes in an LME seminar poll on the metal with the most price upside, amid expectations for AI-related demand.
3. China and BHP
In China, the Yangshan import premium stood at $137 a ton on Monday, while domestic spot premiums fell 115 yuan to 710 yuan a ton. Everbright Futures said cautious purchasing at high prices and uncertainty over US tariffs could keep copper trading within a range. BHP reported a 19% drop in quarterly copper output to 400,700 tons after disruptions in Chile and Australia, but maintained its annual guidance.
