CoreWeave Deploys Nvidia Rubin, Shares Soar 25% While Planning $30B Capex
CoreWeave shares surged 25% this week after deploying Nvidia’s Rubin AI platform, lifting its year-to-date gain to 40% and benefiting from Nvidia’s 5% stake. The company plans $12–14 billion in 2025 capex (roughly $30 billion through 2026) to build GPU infrastructure, with GPU lifecycle uncertainty posing profitability risks.
1. Valuation and Recent Share Performance
Since its IPO, CoreWeave shares have climbed roughly 119%, driven by surging demand for AI data-center services, but they still sit about 52% below the 52-week high reached in June. With a market capitalization near $39 billion and trading at approximately 3.6 times expected forward sales, the stock’s current price-to-sales multiple appears modest relative to its rapid revenue growth. Analysts note that at this multiple, CoreWeave could look attractively undervalued if it continues to expand sales at the rates seen over the past year.
2. Massive Infrastructure Investments and Capex Outlook
Despite lowering its capital expenditure forecast by about 40%, CoreWeave still plans to spend $12 billion–$14 billion on equipment and facilities in 2025. Deferred projects pushed into 2026 could bring total capex to nearly $30 billion for the year, as the company secures cutting-edge GPUs and networking hardware from Nvidia and other suppliers. These heavy investments aim to support sustained sales growth but raise questions about the company’s path to profitability and the time needed to recoup such outlays.
3. Server Lifecycle Uncertainties
A central debate among investors centers on the useful operating life of CoreWeave’s GPU-powered servers. As Nvidia releases more advanced chips, demand for previous generations tends to decline, and accelerated energy-efficiency improvements could shorten infrastructure lifecycles. If server refresh cycles prove significantly shorter than management’s current models assume, the company’s return on its multibillion-dollar hardware investment could be adversely affected, increasing risk for shareholders.
4. Backlog, Capacity Expansion, and Revenue Forecasts
At the end of Q3 2025, CoreWeave reported a revenue backlog of nearly $56 billion—up almost fourfold year-over-year—and had activated 590 MW of power capacity across 41 data centers in the U.S. and Europe. Management expects to bring at least 1 GW of additional capacity online within two years, all of which has already been pre-sold to customers. The company projects $5.1 billion in full-year 2025 sales (up 165% from 2024) and analysts forecast nearly $12 billion in revenue for 2026, implying that even at an 8.7× sales multiple, the market cap could more than double if growth targets are met.