Corinth Investments says geopolitical risk premium stays elevated despite fragile stabilization
SPY•Strait of Hormuz and IMF outlook
About 20 million barrels per day typically transit the Strait of Hormuz; the IMF baseline sees a gradual reopening with pre-conflict conditions by March 2027.
The IMF warned buffers are largely used up, raising exposure to renewed supply shocks; global headline inflation is forecast at 4.7% in 2026. The IMF projected global growth at about 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Corinth urged tighter risk screening for long-duration investments.
Geopolitical risk premium remains elevated
Corinth Investments flagged elevated geopolitical risk despite market resilience, describing conditions as “fragile stabilization” with a higher risk premium.
Middle East transport disruptions eased, but oil-supply risk persists; the IEA called Hormuz restrictions the largest oil-market supply shock on record.
