Costco Q3 EPS Tops Estimates; Revenue Rises 8.3% Year-Over-Year

COSTCOST

Costco reported third-quarter earnings of $4.34 per share, beating estimates by $0.07 on revenue of $67.31 billion, up 8.3% year-over-year, with net margin at 2.96% and ROE of 29.35%. Analysts lowered the average price target to $996 and insiders sold 9,315 shares worth $8.55 million.

1. Evergreen Membership Model Fuels Sales Volume

Costco’s membership structure remains the cornerstone of its business, with over 128 million cardholders globally at the end of last fiscal year. Annual fees contributed more than $4.5 billion in revenue, representing roughly 10% of total top-line sales, and underscoring the retailer’s ability to generate recurring, high-margin cash flow. High renewal rates—north of 90% in domestic markets—drive strong foot traffic and large-basket transactions, as members tend to shop multiple categories in bulk, supporting comparable-store sales growth of 6.2% over the past 12 months.

2. Long-Term Shareholder Returns Outpace Benchmark

An investment of $100 in Costco shares a decade ago would be worth roughly $540 today, delivering an annualized total return near 18%. This performance outstrips the broad market by nearly 9 percentage points per annum. The outperformance is driven by steady same-warehouse sales gains, disciplined cost controls that preserve net margins near 3%, and a conservative capital allocation strategy focused on opportunistic warehouse openings, share repurchases that exceeded $6 billion in the last fiscal year, and a growing dividend that now yields approximately 0.5%.

3. Latest Quarterly Results Highlight Resilience

In its most recent quarter, Costco reported total revenue of $67.3 billion, up 8.3% from the prior-year period. Merchandise operating margin expanded by 12 basis points to 10.8%, while net income rose 7.4% to $2.0 billion. Membership fee revenue climbed 12% year-over-year, reflecting a combination of modest fee increases and continued renewal strength. Management opened 22 new warehouse locations globally, including entries into four new metro areas, and reaffirmed plans for 25 openings in the coming year, signaling confidence in growth opportunities despite consumer spending headwinds.

4. Institutional Holdings and Insider Transactions

Institutional investors own approximately 68.5% of Costco’s shares, with several major asset managers recently increasing positions based on positive outlooks for retail fundamentals and membership renewal trends. In the last quarter, one investment firm trimmed its stake by less than 2%, translating to fewer than 600 shares sold, while another added 1,200 shares, reflecting contrarian buying amid short-term share fluctuations. Senior executives collectively sold around 9,300 shares over the past three months, representing less than 0.01% of total outstanding shares, indicating ongoing portfolio rebalancing rather than a shift in confidence.

Sources

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