Starbucks Q1 Sales Beat at $9.92B, Comps Up 4%, Cowen Targets $89

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Starbucks reported Q1 revenue of $9.92B versus a $9.62B consensus while EPS of $0.56 missed estimates by $0.03. Cowen & Co retained its Hold rating and raised its price target to $89, citing 4% global same-store sales growth and plans for 650 new store openings despite a 19% EPS decline.

1. Strong Q1 Revenue Beats Coupled With EPS Shortfall

Starbucks reported first-quarter revenue of $9.92 billion, exceeding consensus forecasts by 3.2%, but delivered earnings per share of $0.56, missing estimates by $0.03. Global comparable store sales rose 4%, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive comps following a year-and-a-half downturn. U.S. transactions grew for the first time in eight quarters, driven by higher ticket averages rather than traffic gains. Despite the topline surprise, investors pushed shares below technical support as operating income contracted, reflecting margin pressure from elevated input costs and tight coffee futures.

2. ‘Back to Starbucks’ Turnaround Shows Early Traction and Lingering Headwinds

Under CEO Brian Niccol’s “Back to Starbucks” strategy, the company has accelerated coffeehouse remodels—200 completed so far at roughly $150,000 each—and fully rolled out the Green Apron Service operating model across North America. These initiatives aim to improve throughput and customer satisfaction; first-quarter peak service times averaged under four minutes. Yet rising labor and commodity costs trimmed earnings per share by 19% year-over-year. With coffee futures trading near multi–year highs, maintaining industry-leading operating margins remains challenging, even as new menu innovations seek to boost afternoon occasions.

3. Union Negotiations Signal Governance Shift

For the first time, Starbucks’ CEO publicly acknowledged willingness to negotiate with collective bargaining representatives, stating, “I’d love to be able to find a deal, so that we could, you know, get a contract and move on.” This marks a departure from the company’s traditional labor stance and could set a framework for sustainable labor relations. Observers note that a fair, repeatable agreement may help stabilize store staffing costs and reduce partner turnover, a critical factor given Starbucks’ commitment to internal promotions and the new coffeehouse coach role.

4. Investor Day Outlines Ambitious Fiscal 2028 Framework

At its recent Investor Day, Starbucks detailed a financial framework targeting at least 5% annual net revenue growth, 3% comparable store sales gains, and 2%-3% revenue contribution from new stores by fiscal 2028. The company plans to add over 2,000 net new locations globally, including approximately 400 in the U.S. per year, while aiming for a non-GAAP operating margin of 13.5%–15% and EPS of $3.35–$4.00. Management reiterated its commitment to tiered loyalty rewards, global expansion—with a focus on China licensed partnerships—and disciplined capital deployment to deliver sustainable, profitable growth.

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