Daiwa Outperform Upgrade Follows Visa’s 15% Revenue Growth and 9% Transaction Surge
Daiwa upgraded Visa to Outperform after Q1 net revenue climbed 15% y/y to $10.9B and transactions processed rose 9% to 69.4B. Adjusted EPS increased 15% to $3.17, cross-border volumes grew 12% and digital initiatives like Tap to Phone and stablecoin wallet pilots expanded.
1. Daiwa Raises Outlook on Visa
On February 2, Daiwa Capital Markets upgraded Visa to “Outperform,” citing confidence in the company’s ability to navigate a challenging macro environment. The upgrade follows Visa’s consistent track record of double-digit revenue and earnings growth, and reflects expectations that ongoing investments in digital payments and cross-border capabilities will offset potential softness in consumer spending later this year.
2. Strong Quarterly Financial Results
For the quarter ended December 31, Visa reported net revenue of $10.9 billion, up 15 percent year over year. Adjusted net income rose by 12 percent to $6.1 billion, while adjusted earnings per share climbed 15 percent to $3.17, topping consensus forecasts. Transaction volumes on the Visa network increased 9 percent to 69.4 billion transactions, driven by robust holiday spending in the U.S. and accelerated travel activity internationally.
3. International Growth and Digital Innovation
Cross-border transaction volumes expanded by 12 percent, underscoring the importance of Visa’s global network as international travel recovers. The company continued to roll out new digital payment solutions, including its “Tap to Phone” contactless acceptance platform and a pilot for stablecoin wallet settlements. These initiatives aim to capture new fee pools and enhance Visa’s position within emerging digital commerce and central bank digital currency ecosystems.
4. Stock Resilience and Long-Term Outlook
Despite a pullback from mid-year highs, Visa’s market capitalization remains near $644 billion and the shares have delivered nearly 2,000 percent total return since their IPO. Analyst Neil Patel forecasts double-digit EPS growth in fiscal 2026, building on 14 percent adjusted EPS gains in fiscal 2025. With a dividend payout ratio near 25 percent and a yield of approximately 0.8 percent, Visa’s combination of earnings growth, shareholder returns and strategic innovation supports a favorable long-term investment thesis.