Dealmakers will ride US election blue wave
SPY•Democrats’ midterm gains in both chambers of Congress are expected to encourage US companies to accelerate mergers and acquisitions ahead of a possible return to tougher antitrust enforcement. US merger activity rose 32% to $1.8 trillion in the year after the last time a party lost both congressional chambers while holding the presidency.
1. Election shifts M&A outlook
Democrats retaking control of the House and Senate is fueling expectations they could reclaim the White House in 2028, raising the prospect of tougher antitrust enforcement. The article argues that political clarity could lead CEOs to accelerate merger activity.
2. Recent dealmaking and precedents
US agencies concluded 16 significant merger investigations last year, among the lowest tallies since 2011, with more quick settlements and fewer abandoned transactions, according to law firm Dechert. In a comparable political shift 20 years ago, US merger activity rose 32% to $1.8 trillion in the following year, LSEG data showed. Announced US transactions under President Donald Trump totaled $4.3 trillion through September 2026, up 65% from the previous seven quarters.
3. Countervailing pressures
The article notes that CEO confidence is declining and that international resistance to deals is growing, citing China’s rejection of SoftBank’s planned $5.4 billion purchase of ABB’s robotics division. It also says squeezed consumers, weakening business pricing power and the possibility of higher corporate taxes could prompt companies to seek acquisitions to support margins.
