Delta Air cuts profit forecast as $6 billion fuel-cost surge outstrips fare gains
DAL•Delta cut its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $5.10-$5.60 per share from $6.50-$7.50, as fuel costs are expected to rise by $6 billion. It reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share, below the $1.76 average analyst estimate.
1. Forecast cut
Delta lowered its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast for the first time this year, citing higher crude oil and refined jet fuel prices. It now expects adjusted pre-tax profit of $4.5 billion; the midpoint of its per-share forecast, $5.35, is below the $5.46 average analyst estimate.
2. Quarterly results
Third-quarter fuel expenses rose 62% year over year to $4.1 billion, more than $500 million above Delta’s July forecast. Adjusted operating margin fell to 9.4% from 11.1%. Delta said demand remains strong and expects fourth-quarter revenue growth of about 20% from a year earlier, with almost 60% of the quarter already booked.
3. Refinery offset
Delta expects its refinery outside Philadelphia to generate $700 million in profit this year, partially offsetting higher fuel costs. Even with a projected refinery benefit of 40 cents per gallon, it expects fourth-quarter fuel costs of $4.25 per gallon, up from $3.61 in the third quarter.
