Delta Air cuts profit forecast as $6 billion fuel-cost surge outweighs fare gains
DAL•Delta cut its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $5.10-$5.60 a share from $6.50-$7.50, as fuel costs are expected to add $6 billion to its bill. Third-quarter adjusted earnings were $1.72 a share, and fuel expenses rose 62% to $4.1 billion.
1. Lower annual forecast
Delta Air Lines cut its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast for the first time this year, citing higher crude oil and refined jet fuel prices. The company now expects adjusted pre-tax profit of $4.5 billion; the midpoint of its earnings range, $5.35 a share, is below analysts’ average estimate of $5.46.
2. Fare increases tested
Third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.72 a share narrowly missed analysts’ average estimate of $1.76, while adjusted operating margin fell to 9.4% from 11.1%. Delta said third-quarter fuel expenses rose 62% year over year to $4.1 billion, more than $500 million above its July forecast. U.S. airline fares rose about 25% year over year in the five months through August, and Delta said demand remains strong, with almost 60% of fourth-quarter travel already booked.
3. Refinery cushions costs
Delta expects its Philadelphia-area refinery to generate $700 million in profit this year, partially offsetting higher fuel costs. Even with a projected refinery benefit of 40 cents a gallon, the company expects fourth-quarter fuel costs of $4.25 a gallon, up from $3.61 in the third quarter. Delta forecast fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.15 to $1.65 a share.
