Democratic wave is hitting Republican states hardest, scrambling Senate strategy
SPY•Democrats are competitive in 10 states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, widening their potential path to a Senate majority. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and have financial advantages in several closely watched races.
1. More states in play
Polling shows Democrats are competitive in 10 states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina and Kentucky. Democrats must defend two seats in states Trump carried and win four Republican-held seats, including at least two in states he won by double digits. Polls do not necessarily predict election outcomes, and several of the newly competitive races remain rated solidly or likely Republican.
2. Kentucky race tightens
Democrat Charles Booker’s internal polling puts him within single digits of Republican Andy Barr in the race to succeed Mitch McConnell. Barr has a $2 million cash advantage; Booker’s allies say Governor Andy Beshear could help him, and Beshear has endorsed Booker.
3. Spending and campaign focus
Republicans are ahead by millions of dollars in future ad reservations in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Trump is scheduled to campaign in Ohio and Nebraska after holding a rally in South Texas. His approval rating was 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, while the article says voters have consistently named the cost of living as their top concern.
