Democratic wave may hit Republican states hardest, scrambling Senate strategy
SPY•Polls show Democrats competitive in 10 states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, potentially expanding their path to a Senate majority. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and are outspending Democrats by millions on future ads in five battleground states.
1. More states in play
Polling shows Democrats competitive in 10 states Trump carried by double digits in 2024, including Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina and Kentucky. Democrats need to defend two seats in Trump-won states and flip four Republican-held seats, including at least two in states he won by double digits.
2. Kentucky race tightens
Democrat Charles Booker’s internal polling puts him within single digits of Republican Andy Barr in Kentucky’s Senate race, but Barr has a $2 million cash advantage. Booker’s allies say Governor Andy Beshear could help, and Beshear has endorsed him.
3. Spending and uncertainty
Republicans have reserved millions of dollars more than Democrats for future ads in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas, AdImpact said. The article notes that polls do not necessarily predict election outcomes, and many expansion races are still rated solidly or likely Republican.
