Democrats march into Trump country
SPY•Democrats expanded their target list to include Republican-held House districts that Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Several analysts said a gain of 15 to 20 House seats is more likely than a historic rout, while control of the Senate remains uncertain.
1. Democrats expand targets
The Democrats' House campaign arm added districts in Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas and Virginia to its battlefield, including one Trump carried by 24 points in 2024. Republicans and their allies have shifted money from competitive races to support candidates in previously safe seats now on the defensive.
2. House and Senate races
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the House. Party insiders, pollsters and analysts cited in the article said a gain of 15 to 20 seats is more likely than a historic rout. Democrats also need four seats to flip the Senate, where their opportunities are largely in states Trump won; races in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire are tighter than Democrats expected.
3. Paths to control
The House has 435 seats, and Republicans hold 218, the smallest possible majority. About three dozen races are competitive. To win the Senate, Democrats would need to hold Michigan and New Hampshire and flip four of six Republican-held seats in play: Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Texas.
