Deutsche Bank Sees Global GDP at 3.0% and Brent at $86, Warns $150 Oil Risk
DB•Deutsche Bank forecasts 2026 global real GDP growth of 3.0%, expecting a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and drive Brent crude to $86 per barrel by year-end. A closure could spike oil to $150, hurl Europe into recession and force the ECB to hike 50 basis points.
1. Macro Outlook
Deutsche Bank projects global real GDP growth of 3.0% in 2026 with headline inflation revised to 3.8%, driven by persistent AI optimism and Middle East geopolitical tensions. The baseline assumes a US-Iran diplomatic framework by end-June to secure energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Oil Price Scenarios
In the baseline, reopening the Strait of Hormuz would send Brent crude to $86 per barrel by Q4. Under a severe risk scenario of prolonged closure, crude could surge to $150, threatening to stall global growth and push Europe into recession.
3. Central Bank Outlook
The Federal Reserve is forecast to remain on hold indefinitely amid sticky core inflation and strong US fiscal tailwinds. Conversely, the ECB is expected to deliver 50 basis points of rate hikes this summer to counter sharply higher regional inflation.
