Air Products Targets 8.1% EPS Growth, $250M Cost-Cut Plan

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Analyst Scott Kaufman rates Air Products a Buy as it trades 15% below his $291 fair value and targets 8.1% adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2026 driven by new assets and non-helium price gains. At 2.2x net debt/EBITDA, a $250M cost-cut plan and lower post-NEOM capex support dividend safety.

1. Analyst Reaffirmation and Valuation Gap

Leading industry analysts have maintained a Buy recommendation on Air Products and Chemicals, noting that the stock is trading approximately 15% below a $291 fair-value estimate. This valuation discount reflects a disconnect between current market pricing and the company’s robust asset base and long-term earnings potential, highlighting an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to industrial gases and specialty chemicals.

2. Robust EPS Growth Target for FY 2026

Management is guiding toward 8.1% adjusted earnings‐per‐share growth in fiscal 2026, underpinned by contributions from recently commissioned facilities and sustained strength in non-helium pricing. Key drivers include expanded hydrogen production capacity, higher utilization rates at new air-separation units, and ongoing margin expansion in specialty gas lines, signaling a clear path to revenue and profit acceleration over the next two years.

3. Healthy Balance Sheet and Declining Capital Expenditure

The company’s leverage remains conservative, with net debt to EBITDA at 2.2x, providing ample headroom for strategic investments and shareholder distributions. Following the completion of a major liquefied natural gas project, capital expenditure is expected to decline meaningfully, freeing up cash flow to bolster the balance sheet and fund growth initiatives without raising additional debt.

4. Enhanced Cost Reduction and Dividend Safety

An expanded $250 million cost-reduction program is on track to deliver improved operating margins and offset inflationary pressures. Coupled with a consistent track record of annual dividend increases dating back more than a decade, the company’s cash-flow profile supports both dividend safety and potential future payout growth, making it an appealing option for income‐oriented investors.

Sources

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