Dow Index Climbs 14% YTD as Five Components Fall Over 10%

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As of Dec. 26, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a more than 14% year-to-date gain in 2025 while five components (Home Depot, Procter & Gamble, Nike, Salesforce, UnitedHealth) each declined over 10%. Investors eye value opportunities in these lagging Dow stocks trading at forward P/Es of 20.3x–24.1x with dividend yields spanning 0.6% to 2.9%, anticipating a potential sector rotation in 2026.

1. Divergence in a Bull Market

Despite a 14% year-to-date rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average through December 26, five blue-chip components have slipped at least 10% in 2025. Home Depot (-12%), Procter & Gamble (-11%), Nike (-15%), Salesforce (-13%) and UnitedHealth Group (-33%) are the laggards, marking the deepest pullbacks among the 30 names even as the broader index hits fresh highs.

2. Consumer Pressures and Margin Squeeze

Home Depot’s sales growth stalled this year amid a sluggish housing market and strained household budgets, pushing its forward P/E to 24.1 times and yielding 2.7%. Procter & Gamble has fended off a tariff-driven cost surge with its diversified product mix and global reach, maintaining a 51% gross margin and a dividend track record of 69 consecutive years of increases. Nike has seen margins erode under higher duties and a slowdown in China, and is refocusing on storytelling and tighter discounting to restore profitability.

3. Technology and Healthcare Under Review

Salesforce has drawn skepticism as AI threatens to reduce subscription counts, yet it still generates a 70% gross margin and trades at 22.6 times forward earnings while rolling out agent-based AI features. UnitedHealth Group, down roughly one-third in 2025, underestimated rising medical costs and faced a DOJ probe. Its dual segments—insurance premiums via UnitedHealthcare and health services via Optum—nevertheless produced steady cash flow before the pullback.

4. Contrarian Value for 2026

All five names now trade at single-digit to mid-20s forward P/E multiples, below their five-year averages, and offer dividend yields between 0.6% and 2.9%. With economic headwinds expected to ease, patient investors can accumulate shares of industry leaders at these strategic entry points, positioning for upside when consumer sentiment rebounds, AI adoption accelerates in enterprise software, and health-care cost pressures stabilize.

Sources

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