The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% over the four trading days following Martin Luther King Jr. Day, on track for its first weekly loss in three weeks. Monday’s session saw the index drop 0.8%, its largest one-day decline since mid-October, after presidential tariff threats against allies reversed later in the week. By Thursday, the Dow recovered slightly, gaining 0.4% as tariff rhetoric softened at an international forum. However, weaker-than-expected January manufacturing data—where the ISM index registered 48.2 versus a forecast of 50.0—tempered gains and left the index down 0.3% into Friday afternoon.

Chemical and materials manufacturer Dow Inc. (DOW) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning before the opening bell. Analysts surveyed by FactSet project revenue of $14.6 billion, up 2.5% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.58 versus $0.55 in the prior period. Consensus forecasts call for free cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion. Investors will focus on guidance for 2026 margins amid ongoing raw-material cost pressures and recent shifts in trade policy.

Market participants are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement next Wednesday, which could sway sentiment around blue-chip stocks. Futures markets are assigning a 65% probability of a rate hold, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, with a 35% chance of a quarter-point cut. A dovish tilt could bolster cyclical components on the Dow, such as industrials and financials, while a hawkish stance might pressure rate-sensitive sectors and cap short-term gains for the index.