Draft U.S. AI Export Rules Endanger Nvidia’s $78B Q1 China Revenue Guidance
Draft U.S. rules would impose tiered reviews on AI chip exports, forcing host governments to negotiate for large orders and prompting Nvidia to exclude China from its $78.0B Q1 guidance and AMD to record $440M in MI308-related charges as China sales plunge from $390M to $100M. Broadcom’s AI revenue jumped 106% to $8.4B while Qualcomm’s shares are down 19.4% year-to-date, highlighting competitive pressure from China.
1. Proposed Tiered AI Chip Export Framework
New U.S. draft regulations would categorize AI chip exports by order size, subjecting small shipments to expedited review and large deployments to host government negotiations and matching investment requirements. This shift from broad diffusion caps reintroduces complex approval hurdles that could slow U.S. suppliers’ access to key international markets.
2. Nvidia Excludes China from Q1 Guidance
Nvidia has preemptively removed China-based data center compute from its $78.0 billion Q1 guidance, signaling reduced near-term revenue exposure to potential export restrictions. The decision reflects management’s assessment of tightened approvals and the need to insulate forecasts from regulatory delays.
3. AMD Records MI308 Charges and Qualcomm Declines
Advanced Micro Devices absorbed $440 million in inventory and related MI308 charges after Chinese sales tumbled from $390 million in Q4 to $100 million in Q1, underscoring the financial impact of export curbs. Qualcomm’s shares have slid 19.4% year-to-date as similar restrictions weigh on anticipated revenues.
4. Broadcom’s AI Revenue Surges
Broadcom delivered $8.4 billion in AI-related revenue, up 106% year-over-year, demonstrating resilience amid regulatory uncertainty. Strong demand for its networking and acceleration products suggests continued momentum despite potential export hurdles.