Earnings pole vault: The expectations bar keeps rising, companies keep clearing it

Analysts now expect aggregate second-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 26.5% year-on-year, significantly better than the 19.2% growth projected at the beginning of the quarter, per LSEG.

By sector, energy stocks, having benefited from the war-related oil price surge, have inspired the loftiest expectations, at 119.6% over Q2 2025. That's followed by the 65.7% annual growth estimates for the tech sector, which continues to ride the AI wave.

Healthcare stocks are projected to be the losers, with earnings expected to have dropped 18.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Here's a breakdown of the evolution of Q2 earnings expectations, sector-by-sector, courtesy of LSEG:

It's still early going in second-quarter earnings season, with only about 16% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported.

Banks and financial firms account for the largest slice of those, at over 38%, followed by industrials at over 17% and consumer discretionary at nearly 14%, according to the most recent data from LSEG.

Taken together, 88% of the firms that have posted results have beaten analyst expectations. Financials, so far, have an even more impressive 94% beat rate.