ECB may raise rates in December if energy prices stay high, Groupama Asset Management says
TLT•The ECB could raise rates in December if energy prices remain elevated, while keeping policy unchanged for now. Its deposit, refinancing and marginal lending rates remain at 2.5%, 2.65% and 2.9%, respectively.
1. Rates remain unchanged
The ECB could raise interest rates in December if energy prices stay elevated, despite leaving policy unchanged amid heightened uncertainty. A prolonged energy shock could fuel inflation while weakening growth, and the bank’s future decisions remain data-dependent; tighter financing conditions are expected to weigh on both inflation and growth.
2. Lagarde departure confirmed
Christine Lagarde confirmed she will leave as ECB president on February 7, 2027, before her term ends in October 2027.
