Citrini Research released a note titled ‘The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis’ claiming that rapid AI-driven productivity gains could outpace demand, trigger mass unemployment and collapse the economy by 2028, pushing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust to 10,000 before a sharp downturn. The report sparked a 0.7% drop in ETF shares as investors weighed the catastrophic scenario.

Front Harbor Macro Research founder Gerard MacDonell labeled the thesis ‘allegorical,’ arguing that productivity increases historically generate income for workers and capital owners, who then spend or invest those gains, fueling further growth. He highlighted Say’s Law to emphasize that production inherently creates demand and noted that the U.S. economy remains supply-constrained with room for further monetary easing.

Analyst Peter Williams pointed to stabilized white-collar job postings and low layoff mentions on earnings calls, indicating no emerging collapse in hiring intentions across AI-exposed sectors. He noted that if AI substitution were already creating a self-reinforcing employment spiral, forward-looking labor metrics would show sustained deterioration, which they do not.

Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni maintains that AI will augment rather than replace workers, projecting the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust could reach 10,000 by the end of the decade. He cautioned that the primary risk lies in mispricing, as bearish narratives may exaggerate downside and understate productivity-driven value creation.