Elevance Health shares posted their largest one-day percentage gain since May 2024 after reporting $547 million in quarterly profits, partially offsetting the prior session’s worst drop since March 2020. The setback followed a Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposal to raise Medicare Advantage payment rates by just 0.09% for 2027. Technical analysis shows ELV trading within 0.75 of its 100-day moving average’s 20-day average true range, a setup that has preceded three similar signals over the past decade. Each of those instances saw the stock climb an average of 5.7% one month later, which would extrapolate to a move back above 363 per share from current levels.

Put-call volume on ELV options has skewed heavily toward puts, with the 50-day ratio on the ISE, CBOE and PHLX higher than 99% of readings over the past year. Such extremes typically signal a capitulation of bearish sentiment and an opportunity for contrarian gains. Option premiums remain modest, as reflected by a Schaeffer’s Volatility Index of 33%, ranking in the 27th annual percentile. A Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard of 71 out of 100 further indicates that actual volatility has tended to exceed market expectations over the last 12 months.

In its fourth-quarter earnings release, Elevance Health topped EPS consensus on stronger premium revenues and a surge in Carelon services, even as medical membership dipped and benefit expenses climbed. Net profit of $547 million represented a year-over-year increase of 12%, driven by a 7% rise in average premiums per member. However, the company issued subdued guidance for fiscal 2026, trimming its projected premium growth rate to the low single digits and forecasting a modest rise in combined medical and administrative expense ratios. Management cited elevated claim severity and ongoing investments in digital care platforms as factors weighing on near-term margins.